Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.
Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process
Several members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.
