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Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but this past Saturday morning marked its premier large-scale offensive on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Mr Trump declared.

The move to assault another sovereign country and abduct its leader – mere days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other elements of the decapitated regime are far more intransigent.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who won power vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He holds the view that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.

Disregard the signal this transmits to global powers like Russia and China, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will surely embolden additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

It is widely rejected the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, financial discontent and other domestic scandals fuel his desire for external drama.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. World leaders may regret it if they remain quiet at this juncture, considering the potential next target.